- Japan as a Low Carbon Society
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- Two scenarios
- Two scenarios
Its develop- ment depends to a large extent on social and economic circumstances. The development of building stock follows rather closely on the needs of the economy, and in relation to that, the needs of their occupants Table 2. Technologies for pro- ducing and operating the built environment are mainly cross-sectoral implementations of the achievements of all sectors of the economy; this technological diffusion depends on socio-eco- nomic conditions. In this study, development of the building stock will in the future take different paths, depending on the scenario that society and the economy adopt.
Key drivers of the assumptions concerning the built environment. This is due, for example, to a growth in the optical backbone network. During the last dec- ade, commercial off-the-shelf cameras and displays TVs have improved after 20 years of slow development. A similar development can be expected to continue, while augmented and virtual reality technologies will become commonplace. This development will make lifelike telepresence possible well before If this technology is accepted socially — which might be possible among the Playstation generation — it will affect all aspects of everyday life: work, schools, social life, free time and vacations.
Such a disruptive technological change would enable scattered living without increasing traffic congestion and thus, non-travel- ling could become a desirable thing. However, in the future the importance of electricity use will increase. For new buildings, the EU has set the target close to zero energy buildings by In order to achieve the zero energy building targets, interaction between different parts of the infra- structure is crucial, and communications are needed between energy supply and consump- tion. In buildings with a need for cooling, the use of solar energy has evidently achieved the perfect match of supply and demand in the Finnish cli- mate.
For comfort reasons, the cooling demand might increase in future buildings. On the other hand, advanced material technologies such as phase change materials might provide other alter- natives to mechanical cooling. Heating energy consumption of single-family houses and assumptions used in the scenarios.
Japan as a Low Carbon Society
In the Inno scenario, urbanization will be more rapid, and people will live in a more efficiently uti- lized living space. Traditional industries will be supplanted by service and technology busi- nesses that require less space, resulting in a lower need for commercial and industrial buildings. In the Onni scenario, people will want more space and nature around them, so urban sprawl will increase.
Large single-family houses will become the predominant form of housing, and rapid growth will occur in the residential building stock. People tend to work from home, and some even aim at partial self-sufficiency, with small- scale farming, leading to a smaller size in the industrial and commercial building stocks.
Since people are living close to nature, the number of summer cottages or other leisure homes is low compared to Inno and Tonni. In the Onni scenario the assumptions regarding the specific heating energy consumption per building type are close to those in the Inno scenario. In the Onni sce- nario, the high renewal rate of single-family houses is achieved via upgrading by replacing old building stock by new very energy-efficient build- ings. As a result of the high number of new buildings, the energy efficiency of the build- ing stock increases Table 3.
The scenario paths are summarized in Figure 4, showing the sizes of the residential building stock and the combined commercial, industrial and public building stock in all three scenarios. Thus, the specific energy consumption in space heating will decrease but, due to an increasing housing area per person, absolute consumption will not drop that rapidly.
On the other hand, electricity consumption will increase slightly due to an increased number of appliances and devices, even though the specific electricity consumption per device will have decreased dramatically. In the Baseline scenario, heat consumption is thought to represent fairly accurately a continua- tion of the present situation into perpetuity.
In the Tonni scenario, the present mode of building improves at a relatively slow pace. Old buildings are renovated and their energy efficiency is improved at a modest pace. These developments are representative of a reasonable extrapolation of past developments. In the Inno and Onni scenarios, a faster pace of improvement is anticipated. In the Inno sce- nario, this is due to the focus on technological development, whereas in Onni it is due more to a heightened environmental awareness.
It should be borne in mind that a large part of the improvement in the average consumption by the building stock is due to the removal of the oldest buildings from the stock rather than to renovations. Residential buildings also include summer cottages. Hitherto, local power generation in our cold climate has been limited by a number of factors: the efficiency of local power generation tends to be lower than that achieved in large power plants, and our present distribution networks cannot manage the situations that may be produced by large scale local power generation.
This may not, however, be the case in the long term. Smarter distribution grids, control and monitoring tech- nologies, energy storage and improvements in small-scale renewable energy technologies can improve the efficiency of local power generation at district and building levels. In addition, water heat- ing systems with energy storage may be a valuable asset in the future, because in Europe controllable electricity consumption will have increased in value due to a price volatility caused by an increased share of variable wind and solar power generation.
In addition, heating and cooling systems which can use waste heat and cooling sources low exergy might become very attractive in energy-efficient buildings and also benefit the energy network. If these technologies are accepted socially and viable business models can be created, this has a poten- tial to profoundly change our ways of producing and consuming energy. Low carbon and smart mobility 3. Therefore, the trend-setting factors depend heav- ily on social and societal structures, as well as the structure of the economy and the state of techni- cal development Table 4.
Broadly speaking, we can say that land use and structure of the community has the closest correlation with the amount of passenger transport needed. The denser the structure, the less trans- port is needed, especially motorised transport. Key drivers of the assumptions concerning transport and transportation systems.
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In all, the age of the car fleet is fairly high as well as is the average annual mileage by car. Furthermore, dense structure provides a greater opportunity for effective public transport systems. In addition, an intense use of ICT teleworking, tel- epresence, e-business, etc. On the other hand, an increase in spare time as well as living in urban neighbour- hoods may cause an increase in longer leisure trips that cannot be provided by public transport, espe- cially trips to summer cottages which increasingly are used as second homes. See Figure 5.
The amount of freight transport is also related to the regional structure and population density, but perhaps more to the framework of the econ- omy, business and industry. Traditional heavy manufacturing industry generates high transport volumes, whereas the new economy emphasises more contents-based, virtual products in favour of material-based products. Virtual products can be distributed via the Internet rather than by traditional freight- carrying systems.
On the other hand, grow- ing e-commerce over the Internet has gen- erated an increasing amount of parcel-level freight, when people shop for small consumer products from all ends of the world and have these shipped to their post boxes. Harnessing these thin material flows into more effective bulk is a challenge.
Assumed development of passenger transport. The baseline forecast for passenger transport is based on statistics and existing forecasts, and has been extended to the target year using linear trend lines. The assumed development in the scenarios reflects changes in the total amount of domestic travel by trip purpose, changes in travel patterns and trip lengths as well as changes in efficiency. Figure 6. Assumed development of freight transport. The baseline forecast for freight transport is based on statistics and existing forecasts, and extended to the target year using trend lines.
The assumed development in the scenarios reflects changes in the total amount of domestic freight transport by mode, volume and trip length. Land use develop- ment, construction of houses and infrastructure often necessitate the movement of large volumes and masses.
Likewise, food supply and other daily services even today generate freight trans- port at the same level as industry. If we increase our dependence on imported food, freight vol- umes will increase accordingly. See Figure 6. An increasing mar- ket price of crude oil plays a crucial role as the third important key parameter in bringing forward new, innovative technologies and more advanced solutions for vehicles and their energy services, and even all-new transportation systems for both people and goods.
Furthermore, the intensity of the development including the renewal rate of the vehicle fleets and implementation of low carbon and smart transport systems is dependent on economic welfare, regulation and also our behav- iour and values. However, apart from ships, all other vehicles — cars, trucks, buses, trains and aircraft — are almost exclusively developed by large interna- tional companies, and Finnish industry has a very limited input into this work.
- Living in a Low-Carbon Society in | H. Herring | Palgrave Macmillan?
- Thinking Like an Engineer: An Active Learning Approach (2nd Edition).
- Japan as a Low Carbon Society.
The Finnish market for vehicles is so small that it does not justify manu- facturers in considering products specific to the Finnish or even the Nordic market. Therefore, we need to carefully monitor developments and try to choose those vehicle technologies that best suit our conditions. In this kind of hybrid configuration we can also expect even to see a novel type of combustion cycle, which cannot be run on a mechanical-only powertrain. An example of such a cycle is homogeneous-charge compression ignition HCCI , which may offer low-temperature combustion with good efficiency and low NOx emissions.
Progress is also possible by lowering the energy demand of the vehicles. Cutting down mass and making improvement in aerodynamics help the vehicles to move with less energy. A growing use of advanced materials and the increased power of design software should sup- port the already promising outlook towards lightweight but safe cars.
This is a combination that has not been achieved yet, because tradi- tionally increased safety has also meant a higher mass of the vehicle.
Energy use of comfort- related systems should be rationalised. Using sustainable biofuels is one prime can- didate in this effort, as their carbon is derived from renewable biomass, and will again be trapped by growing vegetation.